The Culminating event of college basketball, March Madness, is now just right around the corner, with the First Round just a day away. Every year, one team, if not multiple, makes a Cinderella run that goes against any voice from the booth to the bleachers. With that being said, here are four times that could make a sneaky run at the illustrious NCAA title. It’s March — expect the unexpected.
#8 Gonzaga (25-8)
A historically prestigious team in March, such a pedigree has given some hope for this team’s tournament success. Every year, it seems that Gonzaga tops the seeding but fails to produce late in the tournament. In the past nine seasons, Gonzaga has finished in the Sweet Sixteen four times, the Elite Eight three times and the championship twice. Even with all of those minor successes, the team has yet to reach the finish line, so with a lower seeding this year, is it finally time for Gonzaga to bring it back to Spokane?
Led by senior forward Graham Ike (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 APG), the Bulldogs held a 25-8 record and were one of the most efficient offensive teams we saw this past season. Shooting 58% from 2 this year, Gonzaga ranked above teams like Florida in adjusted offensive consistency, and that’s mainly thanks to Ike.
Leading the team in points, rebounds and blocks, Ike has evolved into a well-rounded forward on both ends of the floor. Still, it hasn’t been enough for scouts, as right now he sits at a fringe second-round pick. If he want’s to raise his stock, he needs a big tournament performance, and that’s something everyone should bet on.
#6 Illinois (21-12)
Finishing last year’s tournament in the Elite 8 brought hope to a historically dormant program. One that hadn’t seen a game past the second round since 2005. Since last year’s postseason success, the Fighting Illini have lost every key player. Terrance Shannon Jr. (23.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.7 APG) and Coleman Hawkins (12.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.7 APG) both were departures from last year’s team, yet Brad Underwood managed to corral a top ten offense while maintaining defensive consistency throughout the year.
Most of this late-season production comes from two projected first-round picks, Kasparas Jakucionis (15.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.7 APG) and Will Riley (12.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.3 APG). This guard and forward pair led a late-season run to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, ultimately claiming a six-seed in the final NCAA Tournament.
If we look at advanced metrics, Illinois places right next to Wisconsin in adjusted offensive and defensive ratings. Wisconsin is the second-place finisher in the Big Ten championship and an early-season favorite to be a March Madness contender.
#6 Missouri (22-11)
This year has been dominant from the SEC, and Missouri is not shy of that — so what’s with the low seed? Finishing 22-11, it was a sloppy end that spoiled the Tigers’ season, giving them a six-seed instead of the conference championship they were hoping for. In the last five games of the season they could only muster a 1-4 record with only two of those losses coming agianst top-five teams.
A marquee win against Alabama earlier in February would set the stage for this team’s potential run in the tournament, but many questions remain. Mark Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.9 APG) was a key piece in the Alabama win with 31 points on 46% shooting. Even after the game, Mitchell kept the same offensive consistency, averaging 16.1 PPG from that day forward, compared to his usual 14.1 PPG.
The same can’t be said for his teammate, Caleb Grill (13.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.2 APG). After the events in Columbia, Grill went on to drop a measly 8 points, followed by 5 in key matchups against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Despite the momentum disadvantage, there’s still a lot to like about Missouri. They are a top-five offense, the only teams ahead of them being Florida, Auburn, Duke, and Alabama. For the added cherry on top, they have an elite beyond-the-arc scorer in Tamar Bates (13.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.0 APG), who shot 42.9% from three.
#5 Michigan (25-9)
The twin towers in the backcourt make this an easy choice as a sleeper in this year’s tournament. Danny Wolf (13.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.7 APG) and senior Vladislav Goldin (16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 APG) both stand at 7’0’’ plus and lead the offense with their pick-and-roll.
Both high-volume scorers led Michigan to the Big Ten championship and would come out on top against #3 Wisconsin 59-53. Although Michigan hadn’t seen the success they were looking for heading up to the Big Ten playoffs, they have a history of winning close games.
The same can be said this time around; Michigan was tied for second in most wins while down by 5 with 11. If Michigan makes it all the way to the Sweet Sixteen, they will likely face Auburn, and from there it’s really a fifty-fifty toss-up. If things stay congruent with the stats, than there should be a slight edge for Michigan to pull off the upset, as over the past few weeks, we’ve seen Auburn show weakness in their defensive consistency, losing to Alabama and Tennessee to round out the season.